Deficits get inflated away; scarce assets reprice. Position built during the stress test, not the party
Δ todayModest BTC ETF inflow reversal after heavy outflows is mild support, but mNAV at 0.86x discount and STRC at 88.16 (-11.8% to par) weigh against immediate re-rating.
→ watch tomorrow: Whether ETF inflows accelerate beyond the small $273M two-week print and if STRC can stabilize or reclaim toward 95.
BTC correlates with risk assets through 2 macro stress events; for MSTR: STRC stuck below 95, runway <12mo, or any skipped preferred dividend
mNAV premium >1.2x while BTC signals green
spot BTC ETF net flows
MSTR market cap / value of BTC holdings
STRC price vs $100 par (daily trust gauge)