in10x//theses
upd 2026-07-22 07:01 CEST
T5 // debasement//2026-07-22

Debasement

Deficits get inflated away; scarce assets reprice. Position built during the stress test, not the party

48 /100
conviction
WATCH

Δ todayModest BTC ETF inflow reversal after heavy outflows is mild support, but mNAV at 0.86x discount and STRC at 88.16 (-11.8% to par) weigh against immediate re-rating.

→ watch tomorrow: Whether ETF inflows accelerate beyond the small $273M two-week print and if STRC can stabilize or reclaim toward 95.

// conviction history — 1 day tracked

35607507-22

// the deal, stated upfront

KILL IF

BTC correlates with risk assets through 2 macro stress events; for MSTR: STRC stuck below 95, runway <12mo, or any skipped preferred dividend

DOUBLE DOWN IF

mNAV premium >1.2x while BTC signals green

// signals — daily score −2…+2 · last 14 runs

btc_etf_flows 1

spot BTC ETF net flows

mstr_mnav -1

MSTR market cap / value of BTC holdings

strc_trust -1

STRC price vs $100 par (daily trust gauge)

// tickers — close 2026-07-22

ticker close 1d 30d vs QQQ 30d
BTC-USDBitcoin 66,336 +1.7% +13.3% +17.4%
MSTRStrategy 101.95 +4.2% -9.4% -5.2%
STRCStrategy STRC (pref) 88.16 +1.2% +0.7% +4.8%

// headlines — last 7 days of collected signal news