in10x//theses
upd 2026-07-22 07:01 CEST
T4 // connectivity//2026-07-22

Connectivity Is the New Bottleneck

AI bottleneck shifted from compute to data movement; CPO/photonics wins whether the buildout continues or rationalizes

54 /100
conviction
WATCH

Δ todayStrong CPO/optical demand evidence (Nvidia pulling forward 3.2T modules, GS Innolight raise, SiPh mass-production) lifted conviction despite 30d relative underperformance and no new hyperscaler capex prints.

→ watch tomorrow: Whether Mag 7 / Alphabet earnings next confirm intact hyperscaler capex language or any sequential cut that would start the kill clock.

// conviction history — 1 day tracked

35607507-22

// the deal, stated upfront

KILL IF

Hyperscaler capex cut 2 consecutive quarters

DOUBLE DOWN IF

CPO revenue beats conservative path while stocks stay flat

// signals — daily score −2…+2 · last 14 runs

cpo_orders 3× 2

CPO / 1.6T optical module order and shipment news

capex_guidance 3× 0

hyperscaler capex guidance changes (weekly check)

price_momentum 1× -1

30d relative performance vs SMH

// tickers — close 2026-07-22

ticker close 1d 30d vs SMH 30d
MRVLMarvell 207.96 +6.7% -33.0% -21.5%
ALABAstera Labs 319.79 +3.5% -23.3% -11.8%
COHRCoherent 317.22 +11.1% -18.6% -7.1%

// headlines — last 7 days of collected signal news

2026-07-22
AI Insiders Warn of Hyperscaling Risks | The Epoch Times theepochtimes.com · capex_guidance
Kimi K3's 2.8T-Parameter Launch Puts AI Capex Story on Trial tftc.io · capex_guidance
AMD Stock Down 17% From Peak — Can July 22 Advancing AI Save It? tradingkey.com · capex_guidance
Industrials Are Up 17% and Still Catching the Next Wave of AI Money - 24/7 Wall St. 247wallst.com · capex_guidance
Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel Earnings Are the First Real Test of AI Capex at Scale www.techtimes.com · capex_guidance
Co-Packaged Optics Demand Reshapes AI Chip Supply Chains in 2026 - Astute Group astutegroup.com · cpo_orders
Applied Optoelectronics Falls 12%, Coherent and Lumentum Slide as AI Optics Trade Cools - 24/7 Wall St. 247wallst.com · cpo_orders
Goldman Sachs More Than Doubles Zhongji Innolight Target to 2,581 Yuan as Nvidia Pulls Forward 3.2T Optical Module Demand — BigGo Finance finance.biggo.com · cpo_orders
+2 more collected